Technical article
Can recalls be prevented by an early-warning system? If so, why isn't it being done?
Munich – An analysis of recall statistics and a presentation of a preventive approach to avoiding recalls.
Key facts about last year's automotive recalls:
- The number of recalls is on the rise; in the U.S. alone, there has been an annual increase of 10% in recent years, and the number of vehicles affected is also rising sharply (2018: 929 recalls / 750 different defect patterns). This trend is driven by increasing regulatory requirements (e.g., environmental regulations). The growing interest of stakeholders (loss of customer trust, employee liability, information availability, public discussions) is exacerbating the situation.
- An analysis of recall statistics revealed that two-thirds of all recalls were caused by integration issues at the OEMs, while only one-third were due to problems with supplier parts.
- The focus is on installation and design errors.
- The powertrain system is by far the most affected by recalls. 28% of all fault codes are attributable to either the engine/fuel supply module or the axle and suspension module—both of which are part of the powertrain system.
- Most recalls involve safety-related issues (affected components include the engine/fuel system, axles and suspension, seats and seat belts, airbag systems, and steering systems).
- In 2015, BMW recalled vehicles from the X3 and X4 model series because the mounts for the Isofix child seat could break. Then, in 2018, Mercedes issued a recall because the Isofix bracket used to attach the seat to the vehicle body did not meet specifications. The exact same component—with a nearly identical description of the defect—could Mercedes have avoided the recall?
Preventive Measures: Using Early Warning Radar to Prevent Recalls in 6 Steps
- Extract data records from the following available sources: Rapex (Europe), ADAC (Germany), DVSA (UK), NHTSA (USA), and Transport Canada (Canada).
- Analyze and interpret data sets and consolidate them into cross-source recalls.
- Group recalls based on common fault patterns across manufacturers to determine whether the same fault pattern has occurred with multiple manufacturers and led to the same recall.
- Researching and Understanding Error Patterns (What? Why? How? Who?)
- Analyze the results with experts from R&D, production, and purchasing, and take appropriate action if necessary.
Why Recall Statistics Are Not Analyzed Preventively – An Analysis
An increase in recalls causes warranty costs to rise significantly; as a rule of thumb, reducing recall costs by 50% can increase return on sales by 10%—not to mention the loss of reputation and trust that recall campaigns cause. In markets such as Asia, this can have a significant impact on a premium OEM’s market position.
To truly obtain a global assessment, it is not enough, for example, to analyze only the ADAC’s data; all databases must be analyzed. Furthermore, the data alone is not sufficient; it must be enriched and interpreted. In other words, an investment is necessary to minimize a potential risk that would only become apparent once the actual recall takes place.
Do you want to avoid product recalls in the future and are interested in our early warning system?
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